Phillies' 7-0 shutout on May 7 (WAR 4.5, wOBA .317) vs. Rays' 16-20 record (FIP struggles, injuries to Lowe, Palacios) shows dominance. Sánchez's 3.45 ERA vs. Baz's 4.93 ERA highlights pitching edge. Recent 7/9 wins for Phillies, Rays' bullpen leaks (high ER in late innings), and no weather impact confirm 80% win probability.

Royals' wOBA (.320) and Bubic's FIP (3.85) outshine White Sox (.285 wOBA, Martin's 5.12 FIP). Recent form (8-2 vs. 3-7) and home stats (14-5 vs. 3-16 road) favor KC. Weather (72°F, light winds) aids hitters, but Royals' base-running (25 SBs) exploits Martin's slow delivery. Matchups like Witt Jr. (.333 vs. RHP) seal the edge.

Twins’ Richardson (3.00 ERA last 5) outshines Morton (9.38 ERA, 5+ ER in 4/5 starts). Twins’ wOBA (.315) vs. Orioles’ (.298) and home park factor (0.92) favor them. Injuries (O’Neill, Urías out) hurt Orioles, weather (68°F, light winds) suits pitching. Buxton’s power vs. Morton’s sinker seals the edge. 62% win probability, 57% run line cover.