After a long, hard season in which you have enjoyed some success, you sit down and watch the Champions League draw being made for that campaign.
Sub consciously, you want an easy draw to stand the best chance of progressing to the last 16, and to do that there are some teams you’d like to avoid at all costs.
One of those sides is Bayern Munich, a perennially strong European powerhouse, and so you forgive all involved at Benfica for feeling slightly perturbed at being paired with the Germans.
So how will this fixture end? Where is the betting value here? We’ll try to answer this questions in our Benfica vs Bayern predictions below.
|Statistics for last 10 matches ||Benfica / Bayern |
|Number of wins: ||6 / 8 |
|Number of draws: ||3 / 0 |
|Average scored goals per match: ||2.1 / 2.6 |
|Average conceded goals per match: ||1.0 / 0.8 |
|Failure to score matches: ||0 / 1 |
|Team form (last 5 matches): ||D D W W W / W W W W W |
1. Odds Preview
That said, second place appears to be there for the taking with Ajax and AEK Athens being the other sides in Group E, and so the Portuguese outfit will know that if they can manage to steal a draw or even a narrow defeat against the Bundesliga champions then they are still in a good place.
Unfortunately, that seems to be a mission improbable. Benfica, you may recall, lost all six of their Champions League games last season with a goal difference of -13. This season, Bayern have won their two Bundesliga games by scorelines of 3-0 and 3-1.
So does the Portuguese outfit have what it takes to spring an early Champions League upset? How about 1X2 Benfica v Bayern odds?
The bookmakers are in no doubt, anyway. They have Benfica as a huge 7.50 to win this match, with Bayern a red-hot odds-on fancy at 1.50. The draw can be backed at 4.66.
2. Benfica vs Bayern Prediction
So what chance do Benfica have? In last season’s Champions League group stage they lost six out of six and scored just one goal, that’s how outclassed they were.
And that wasn’t the hottest selection of opponents either, with Manchester United, Basel and CSKA Moscow hardly keeping the elite awake at night.
Benfica were infinitely better on home soil than on their travels, but still went down 0-1 to United, 0-2 to Basel and 1-2 to CSKA Moscow; the Russians who have lost 13 of their last 20 away matches in the competition.
As for Bayern, they are as ruthlessly efficient as you might expect them to be in tournament play. They won five of their six group games last season, with the sole defeat coming in Pairs against PSG – a wholly forgivable outcome.
The Germans are much stronger on home soil than they are away from home, however, and only just snuck past Celtic and Anderlecht by a 2-1 scoreline.
The problem for Benfica is that injuries have ruled out Sebastian Corchia and Jonas, and so they will have to look elsewhere for goals in the absence of the latter. It’s all well and good doing the business in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, but the Champions League is a different level altogether.
Bayern, with Manuel Neuer back fit, Robert Lewandowski still around after threatening to leave and the excellent new boy Leon Goretzka starting well, look as strong as ever. They are worth a bet with a -1 handicap at a mouth-watering price of 1.86.
The Champions League 2018/19 kicks off next week, and Benfica and Bayern Munich will be looking to get their campaign off to the best start when they meet in Portugal. You can also check Benfica vs Bayern betting tips from our users, in the Tips section.